European banking crisis: Why your assets are not safe at your local bank
European banks are not profitable. Your cost-income ratio is 65%. When loans default, things get tight. Learn how to protect your money.
The banking problem in Europe
European banks are not healthy. This is not dramaturgical - it is the mathematical truth that emerges from Huber's data (Figures 21 and 22).
The core problem:
- Negative margins: The ECB key interest rates are below zero. Banks can't make more money
- Zombie loans: Many companies don't pay their debts, but banks don't write them off
- Restructuring provisions: To a large extent, profits are just provisions for future losses
- Balance sheet extension: The ECB ties up balance sheets in bond purchases. Banks have less lending ability
€1,200 billion
Non-performing loans in the EU (2020)
Critical metrics: The cost-income ratio
One key figure shows the problem clearly: the cost-income ratio (CIR). It shows how many cents a bank has to spend to earn one euro.
Cost-income ratio of German banks
Higher = less profitable. Above 60% is critical.
What does that mean? German banks spend 65 cents to earn one euro. This is not sustainable. US banks have a CIR of 42%. This is the Americans' competitive advantage.
How to protect your money
1. Diversification of banks
Not all money is in one bank. Use:
- Several banks: Deposit insurance works per bank up to €100,000
- Online banks: Digital banks don’t have expensive branches and have better margins
- Non-Eurozone banks: Swiss or Scandinavian banks are more stable
2. Alternative form of assets
Banks are not the only form of wealth:
- Gold and silver physical (do not store in the bank)
- Real Estate Ownership
- Shares in international companies
- Cryptocurrencies (as a small position)
3. Structural reallocation
Huber's thesis recommends: Shift 60% of your assets into tangible assets. No more relying on banks.
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Academic source: Master Thesis
Development of optimal asset allocation in times of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy
Daniel Huber, M.A. — Mainz University of Applied Sciences, 2020 | Supervised by Prof. Dr. Arno Peppmeier
13,174 words · 92 figures · 39 tables · Markowitz efficiency line analysis
Download full thesis (PDF, 6 MB) →
Daniel Huber, M.A. — Mainz University of Applied Sciences, 2020 | Supervised by Prof. Dr. Arno Peppmeier
13,174 words · 92 figures · 39 tables · Markowitz efficiency line analysis